COOL’EH NFL PREVIEW
September 9th, 2010
You asked and so COOL’EH delivereth…behold…the behemoth has been tamed; your next five months of football on a platter.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Green Bay is perfectly poised for an outstanding year on offense. The line gelled by the end of the year, Aaron Rodgers is one of the best players at his position and his confidence has got to be sky high, the receiving corps is bursting at the seams with talent and experience. The only real weakness on offense is that Ryan Grant is the only halfway decent running back on the team, but maybe that just means they plan on keeping the ball in the air. With Rodgers throwing to Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley, it is hard to find a problem with that strategy.
Despite the Packers being everyone and their life partner’s Super Bowl favorite, I don’t see it being so cut and dry. For starters, although they are entering year 2 in Dom Capers 3-4 scheme, the Packers defense still does not have the ideal personnel to run it. Nose tackle Johnny Jolly is suspended for the year, which means B.J. Raji is going to be the man in the middle. I have no doubt that Raji is going to do a serviceable job, but he was much more imposing at the end position in the 3-down front. Now, Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett have to rotate at end with promising rookie Mike Neal…not one of those guys is a proven 3-4 lineman. Could they make it work? Sure, but I am betting that the defensive line will struggle mightily against elite blockers. The Packers have a potentially great linebacking corps, but if those guys are forced to take on guards and tackles instead of blocking backs, things could get ugly. The secondary also has a bit of a patchwork look; cornerback Al Harris is out for six weeks and strong safety Atari Bigby will miss 4-8 weeks. Charles Woodson is healthy now but at his age, any season could be his last. The last couple years Woodson looked like he found the fountain of youth and he very well may again this season, but if not, expect some major shootouts. The Packers also have a startling lack of depth in the defensive backfield, which means that if the injuries continue they will be giving up a lot of yards to all halfway-capable offenses.
Minnesota Vikings 11-5
I really am tempted to make Minnesota the division favorite for one simple reason; I can easily see them sweeping Green Bay again. The Packers looked scared in both games against the Vikings last year and Favre clearly still has an axe to grind with his former team [quick question: If Favre wins a Superbowl in Minnesota, what jersey will he wear in the HOF]. The Vikings offense is missing a couple skill players [Rice at WR, Chester Taylor at the 3rd down back] and Percy Harvin may be sidelined by migraines. Nevertheless, with one of the best offensive lines in the league, Favre at QB and Adrian Peterson at the tailback, the Vikings will score points. Defensively, Minnesota’s front seven might be a step down from last year’s frontline but they have too much talent and cohesion to be anything less than excellent. The secondary is closer to mediocre than they are to greatness, but with the sort of pass rush that the Vikings can bring, the defensive backs do not need to be great every time out. The Packers schedule seems a little bit more forgiving than the Vikings and Minnesota also has some serious issues with Rice and Harvin both struggling with ailments, so I think the Packers take the division by a game. Could go either way though.
Chicago Bears 8-8
The Bears have improved significantly from last year, but there are two major problems. Problem number one is that they did not do much to improve their weakest position, the offensive line. Until the Bears commit to overhauling the O-line, investments in offensive skill players will not pan out. No blocking means a mediocre running game, which means obvious third down passing situations for Cutler, which means pressure and heavy coverages, which means sacks and interceptions. Problem number two is that the Bears are playing in the NFL’s toughest division in 2010. It will be tough for the Bears to get even a single win out of the four games against the Packers and the Vikings, and unless they can get at least two, a winning record may be out of the cards. On the bright side, the Bears skill positions on offense should provide some big plays and if they can remain healthy, the linebackers could dominate behind a re-energized defensive line. But unless the Bears offensive line overachieves, no amount of defensive revamping will be enough to keep pace with Green Bay and Minnesota.
Detroit Lions 5-11
The Detroit Lions are going to steal some games this year. The end result will not be a great record; they have too many missing pieces and too many injuries, in a division where the margin for error is nil. But barring cataclysmic injury to Matthew Stafford or receiving phenom Calvin Johnson, this team will take a bunch of teams by surprise. Linebacker/pass-rusher Kamerion Wimbley is going to overrun a fair share of plays but his speed on the corner is something Detroit has not had for a while. The defense will not be shutting anyone down but they could generate turnovers and pressure the QB, two things the lions have not done in a long, long time.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
I have not seen much mention of it, but I think the most significant off-season acquisition by the Super Bowl champs was defensive end Alex Brown. Brown still has plenty of mileage and was the one member of the Chicago Bears once-great defensive line who didn’t fall off after their 2006 Superbowl run. He plays the run and rushes the passer with equal tenacity, giving the Saints a proven threat opposite the underrated Will Smith. That added run-stopping and pressure on the quarterback will help generate the sort of turnovers Expect to see more four man rushes, which enables the Saints to sit back in coverage and ball-hawk. Weak teams will be mercilessly steamrolled on the other side of the ball and even good defenses will struggle against the hydra headed Saints attack. Brees, Meachem, Colston, Shockey and Bush are bad enough, but expect to see a lot more of hard charging sparkplug running back Pierre Thomas.
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
The Atlanta Falcons are actually being talked about as legitimate Super Bowl contenders this year. I am not sure I see it, sure they have a great running back and a couple excellent receivers paired with a returning Tony Gonzalez at TE, but they are not particularly impressive on either line of scrimmage. Luckily for the Falcons, running back Michael Turner doesn’t need much, a bruising, agile runner who, pound-for-pound, is as good as anyone in the league not named Chris Johnson. As long as Atlanta doesn’t completely fall in love with the shotgun on first down, and keeps the offense balanced between run and pass, Atlanta’s line should be good enough.
The NFC South is arguably the weakest division in the league and the Falcons will benefit from this because they are pretty much assured of four easy victories. Beating the Saints for the division title just seems a little too much to ask until the Falcons put in some work on their protection and defense, but a playoff run seems completely possible. Their schedule is full of what should be easy wins and the team has enough weapons and experience playing together to take advantage.
Carolina Panthers 6-10
The Carolina Panthers are counting their lucky stars that WR Steve Smith is back from a broken arm during the off-season but without a whole lot more luck, this team is headed nowhere. They can run the ball as well as anyone in the league and have the depth at the position to do so for the whole season but that is about it. Matt Moore is a solid quarterback and he does have a very capable offensive line but there just aren’t a whole lot of options in the passing game. Tight end Jeff King needs to play above his head to keep Moore from having to force passes to Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett needs to convince us that he is a starting quality receiver in the NFL. The reason why the offense will have to overachieve is that the defense is going to struggle mightily. The pass rush departed with Julius Peppers’ move to Chicago, Chris Gamble is the only guy in the secondary worth talking about and monster linebacker Jon Beason is the only proven entity in the entire front seven. With a defense this cluttered with question marks, it is hard to see Carolina going far without some breakout seasons on the offensive side of the ball.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13
Tampa Bay has plenty of young talent and I am willing to include their coach Raheem Morris in that equation. They have had a couple interesting draft picks the last two years and young QB Josh Freeman is one of those interesting selections. This year the Bucs have added some rookie receivers and if Cadillac Williams is healthy, I can see the Bucs adding a couple wins to last year’s record. Problem is, on both sides of the ball, this is a team of raw talent and little-to-no experience combined with the youngest coach in the league. The Buccaneers will struggle to find their footing, even in one of the league’s weaker divisions.
NFC EAST
Perhaps only Norv Turner is a better regular season coach than Wade Phillips. On paper the Cowboys (12-4) have the look of a team that should win one of the toughest divisions in football. Despite questions on the line the offense has good running backs, above average receivers, and Tony Romo, perhaps the best on-field extension of his coach. The D, which features one of the best players in the league in DeMarcus Ware, also looks pretty tough on paper. The biggest questions for the Cowboys will be how they respond to a grueling schedule and if they can once again avoid a debacle in December. While they did manage to shock the world and win a playoff game last year, this Cowboys team has to start showing now that they have what it takes to stay focused for sixteen games and beyond.
The New York Giants (10-6) raised a few eyebrows when they drafted Jason Paul-Pierre, a defensive end out of South Florida. At first look it seemed that Osi Umenyiora was on his way out but he seems to have doubled down on his commitment to what the Giants are doing defensively. In the preseason the pass rush looked rejuvenated and the secondary, now led by safety Antrel Rolle, looks ready to be an assist rather than a liability. It’s important that these two units do well because the linebackers continue to be a weak spot. The offense has the potential to be better than it was last year. Despite injuries, improved talent on the line will mean that whatever combination is put out there will be above average. The running game will thrive now that Ahmad Bradshaw is healthy and the primary option. Eli Manning will put up gaudy numbers but has to cut back on the interceptions in order for the Giants to be in hunt for the NFC East title.
It’s obvious that the Washington Redskins (8-8) and Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) will be linked as long as Donovan McNabb is slinging that rock in the “Urrea.” That may not be for too long the way things are shaping up in DC. The ‘Skins looked like they were going to have ea strong defense, then Mike Shanahan switched to the 3-4. It’s is going to take at least one more off-season to get the right personal, hopefully the first move to that end will be trading Albert Haynesworth. This pissing contest between player and coach could be the symptom of a disconnection between coach and team. If they get past this issue the next challenge will be improving one of the worst offensive lines in football. If they don’t protect McNabb better than they did Jason Campbell, its gonna be a long season around the Beltway. In Philly Kevin Benjamin Kolb might find himself on the hot seat if he doesn’t improve on his preseason performance. Luckily he has a home run hitter in DeSean Jackson to throw to LeSean McCoy is good enough to keep teams honest but he’s no Brian Westbrook. The D is young and talented, a fact that will keep the Iggles in the mix for a wildcard even if Kolb stumbles.
NFC WEST
On paper it looks like this is the year for the 49ers (11-5) to get over the hump and make the playoffs by winning the division. Frank Gore is a combination of speed and power that makes him among the elite backs in the league. Using both first round picks on offensive lineman will immediately improve a solid running game. The strong defense is going to be another hallmark of Mike Singletary’s squad. Led by Patrick Willis, the Niners’ front seven are going to be very fast and very stingy on that side of the ball. The passing game is what makes me hesitant to say the West is theirs to win. The secondary doesn’t have anyone that scares offenses and as long as Alex Smith is the starting quarterback the position is unsettled. If receiver Michael Crabtree plays to his potential and tight end Vernon Davis continues to be a dominate player perhaps they will have enough of a passing game to keep opponents honest. But this is all pending Alex Smith evolving into a capable starting quarterback.
Despite major losses, the Cardinals (11-5) still have enough to win their division. Going with Derek Anderson gives them a proven quarterback with a stable of talented receivers. Even with the loss of Anquan Boldin they still have a player in Larry Fitzgerald who can take over a game from the position. The Cards pair a powerful ground game with their potent aerial attack. Both Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells averaged more than four yards a carry and should at least match those numbers. It’s going to a bit harder to make up for the defense to make up for the loss of cornerback Antrel Rolle and linebacker Karlos Dansby. They will still have a stout line and solid pass rush, but can they get strong enough play from the secondary to make a return to the post season?
Pete Carroll’s Seahawks (6-10) are working with a decent amount of defensive talent but the offense is looking rudderless. The “D-Hawks” have two pairs of very good players in linebackers Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu and defensive backs Earl Thomas and Marcus Trufant. This means if they get some quality lineman they could be an impressive unit very swiftly. On offense they need to make sweeping upgrades at running back and receiver because what they have right now is not what’s cracking. The Hawks also have to get Matt Hasselbeck out of the way to see what they have in Charlie Whitehurst and pray that Russell Okung is the type of left tackle you can build a franchise around.
Speaking of God and prayers God bless the St Louis Rams (4-12). Steve Spagnuolo is no doubt a good coach; the question is going to be whether he can build a team. On offense the team is strong up the middle, which is a good start. Jason Brown is a quality center and Sam Bradford appears to have the arm and aptitude expected of a quarterback taken first overall. Obviously Steven Jackson is a revelation at running back that puts up amazing numbers despite being the focus of every teams he plays against. The trick is getting the rest of the offense up to level of Jackson before he decides he wants to play for a winning team. With the exception of one or two keepers, the defense is a long way away from allowing Spagnuolo to effectively use the kinds of schemes that helped the Giants win their most recent Super Bowl.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
This is the year we find out exactly how good Joe Flacco is. Running game? Check. The Ravens have always been a good ground team and with run/catch threat Ray Rice playing better by the carry, alongside LeRon “Die Hard” McClain and veteran Willis McGahee, that is not going to change. Offensive line? Veteran center Matt Birk and young tackle Michael Oher have turned a solid unit into what might be one of the leagues best. Receivers? All-Pro tight end Todd Heap and reliable Derrick Mason are joined by Anquan Boldin and a motivated T.J Houshmandzadeh in the slot. Unless Joe Flacco folds under pressure, this has got to be one of the stronger offenses in the NFL. The other reason that Flacco will have to come through is that the Ravens defense is not what it was two years ago. Ed Reed is a shadow of his former self, cornerback Dominique Foxworth is injured and the pass defense could be suspect as a result. Ray Lewis isn’t getting any younger and although you can still expect him to join Haloti Ngata in stuffing the run, he may get exposed in the passing game. Still, the Ravens have the scheme and personnel to be a top 10 defense. If Flacco does his job and the new O-line stays healthy, that should be enough.
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Cincinnati is all about redemption this year. Former Chicago washout Cedric Benson is running people over, Terrell Owens is playing opposite Ochocinco and two young stars in the making in Shipley and Gresham, catching passes. Combine that offensive firepower with a D that surprised everyone with their athletic linebackers and solid secondary play, it would appear that the Bengals may be more than a one season fluke. In fact, if Pacman Jones blends in as a slot guy paired with the underrated Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, this will not be the team you want to face on passing downs. Only problem is…Carson Palmer will probably get hurt and what, oh what, will the Bengals do if Carson Palmer gets hurt?
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Ben Rothelisberger picked the wrong off-season to get caught with his pants down. The division is as tougher than it has ever been since the NFL realigned and the Oilers/Titans shipped out for the AFC South. The Steelers are still solid on both sides of the ball but solid will not be enough in a division this stacked. Losing Ben for the start of the season and Santonio Holmes unceremonious departure are going to hurt the offense. The Steelers can only hope and pray that running back Rashard Mendenhall stays healthy because veteran insurance policy Willie Parker is long gone. Mike Wallace will do well as a big play threat but there is some question as to whether Hines Ward is capable of shouldering that #1 receiver burden as heavily as he will have to this year. Ward is not getting any younger and age catches up on small receivers faster than the big guys. Andre Rison, anyone? Lamar Woodley is still going to be a terror coming off the corner, Hampton is going to stuff the middle and Polamalu will be his usual headhunting self [racist, I know-Ed.], so the Steeler D will keep them in games. That just may not be enough to put them in the playoffs this season.
Cleveland Browns 3-13
Like the NBA, the NFL is trending to wards talent concentration. Suddenly a bunch of teams have more skill players than they know what to do with, but every action has a reaction. That talent bursting out of the seams of teams like the Jets, Bengals and Ravens didn’t just appear in the league overnight, it came from other teams…like the Browns. Before Mike Holmgren even showed up as GM this off-season, the Browns seemed to be doing everything they could to empty their roster of players whose names you might actually know. Holmgren just sped things up; QB Derek Anderson, QB Brady Quinn, WR Mike Furrey, LB Kamerion Wimbley, S Brodney Pool and both offensive guards were sent packing over the summer. Make no mistake, this team has been completely gutted and the rebuilding is only just beginning. Cleveland used the draft to upgrade their secondary, in addition to adding former Eagle Sheldon Brown at cornerback, so the secondary could be their greatest strength. Other than that, running back Jerome Harrison better stay healthy because the less beyond-washed-up quarterback Jake Delhomme throws the ball, the better.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Barring injury problems, the Indianapolis Colts are going to win this division. Their schedule is too soft and their veteran team is too professional for it to be anything else. This team figures to be a lot like last years, virtually nothing has changed for this well-oiled machine. If Anthony Gonzalez is healthy, they will be able to spread the field even more than before and capitalize on the current trend in the NFL: more receivers and less obvious running formations. This suits the Colts perfectly since their running game is one of the worst in the league. The defense is going to be it’s usual speedy, bend but don’t break, self and the Colts will make another run deep into the postseason.
Tennessee Titans 11-5
I really wanted to pick the Titans to win this division, and I figured they would have a good chance now that Kerry Collins is history. Then I looked at the roster and the schedule and realized that it is not going to happen. That doesn’t mean that the Titans wont make the playoffs, I think they will, but a division win would require a lot of overachieving. The reason is that, inexplicably, the Titans sat pat in the off-season. They desperately need a top-flight wide receiver [San Diego’s Vincent Jackson would be perfect] but they didn’t even come close to signing a solid second tier guy. The defense lost LB Keith Bullock and pass-rusher Kyle Vanden Bosch but only gained rookies. The secondary is strong at safety but the corners are only slightly above average, so injuries could decimate their ability to keep pace with the Colts. Keep in mind that this defense had already slipped from the ranks of the league’s best, and it could be a tougher road to the playoffs than Titans fans would like to admit.
Houston Texans 9-7
Once again, The Texans are on the verge. And once again, they just do not seem to have everything they need to guarantee a playoff berth in a very competitive division. When you are in the same division as the Colts, you really cannot afford to lose a corner like Dunta Robinson to free agency. Now their best defensive back is arguably a rookie, and that just is not going to cut it when the Colts go four wide. Add rookie running back Ben Tate, who is lost for the season, and Brain Cushing, who is suspended for the first four games, and I think the Texans will come up just short again. They were wise to sign Leinart because Matt Schaub could be throwing the ball a lot this year and the offensive line is decent, but not great. Andre Johnson is still the best receiver in the league and Owen Daniels returning at tight end means that the passing game could be even better than last year. The Texans have talent but their schedule is heavy with upper echelon teams and the secondary is going to have a hard time not being shredded by the leagues better offenses. Unless someone has a breakout year and helps Mario Williams, the pass rush will not be sufficient to cover for one of the league’s weaker defensive backfields. Undersized but speedy DT Amobi Okoye needs to be more of a force against the run, and ex-Giant OLB Danny Clark needs to be better than average, at least until Cushing returns from suspension.
Jacksonville Jaguars- 4-12
The Jaguars did the right thing in abandoning the Tim Tebow sweepstakes but unfortunately they did not get much else right this off-season. While the addition of Aaron Kampman at pass-rushing end and underachieving uber-talent Kirk Morrison at MLB, coach Del Rio took some concrete steps towards shoring up a Swiss cheese defense. But with no receivers to speak of, David Garrard will once again be facing an uphill battle on every third down. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the most exciting players in the league but in this division, that simply will not be enough. No passing game, an average O-line, little fan support and several questions remaining on D, the Jaguars are in for a long season.
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AFC EAST
Despite being one of the most polarizing coaches in the NFL, Rex Ryan has a lot to brag about. The Jets (11-5) had the number one rated defense last season and could be better with the return of Kris Jenkins up front and addition of Antonio Cromartie to give Darrelle Revis a hand slowing offenses in this pass-happy league. The big questions for the Jets are on the offensive side of the football. This team made it to the AFC Championship because it ran the ball as well as any other team. One of the main pieces of their line, left guard Pete Kendall, will be replaced by an untested player, and Shon Greene has to prove that he can be a productive workhorse on a run first team. When you throw in the fact that Mark Sanchez hasn’t shown much growth in the preseason, the chances of the Jets going far into the playoffs doesn’t look too good. With all the hot air coming out of Florham Park, anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be considered an unqualified failure.
The Miami Dolphins (10-6) made some of the biggest moves in the off-season and as such are the most improved team in this division. The ‘Fins should once again have a potent ground game and receiver Brandon Marshall has the ability to be one of the top players at the position. As long as Chad Henne continues to improve the Dolphins will have a chance in the East. Linbacker Karlos Dansby gives them a much-needed athletic presence near the line of scrimmage and Elvis Dumervil’s big payday is proof how well coordinator Mike Nolan can coach ‘em up. If Nolan can get his guys to play at the same level as the offense is capable of look for the Dolphins to be in the hunt for a wildcard berth.
Despite being better than two-thirds of the league, major cracks are starting to form in the New England Patriots’ (9-7) façade. The team has been losing, and not necessarily replacing, defensive stalwarts for the past few years and the effects are starting to show. This symptom will be more pronounced this season with corner Leigh Bodden and end Ty Warren out for the season. Despite the emergence young studs such as Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty, this unit is not going to be good but not elite. It’s hard to count out a team which features Tom Brady and Randy Moss, but the Pats’ O has its challenges as well. Wes Welker has come back quicker than expected but is by his own admission not back up to speed. The O-line has been suspect for a few years and its best player, Logan Mankins, is now the best holdout in football.
In Buffalo the Bills (7-9) will do little to remind fans in Upstate NY of the Electric Company days but you gotta like the direction this team is going. The addition of C.J. Spiller gives them three quality running backs to build around. The profound lack of a passing attack is going to allow opponents to focus on stopping the only thing the Bills can do effectively. The switch to the 3-4 defense is going quicker for Buffalo than it has for most other teams, but Aaron Schobel’s retirement leaves them without a dependable pass rusher. Perhaps the fact that the secondary is one of the best in the league wins them an extra game or two, but most likely it means that they have a three year window to get the front seven together in order if they wish to field a high quality D.
AFC WEST
With the exception of Wade Phillips, Norv Turner is the penultimate regular season coach. His brilliance in the first sixteen weeks will have the Chargers (12-4) coasting to the AFC West title. They will do so thanks to their explosive passing attack and a drastic upgrade in the running game with rookie Ryan Matthews taking over for LaDainian Tomlinson. Antonio Cromartie may stand as a case of addition via subtraction for a defense that should have no trouble with the offenses it faces in the division. Until the Chargers start showing some mental toughness in December and January it’s hard to imagine them doing anything more than crashing into a fucking mountain late in the season.
Denver’s Broncos (8-8) suffered the biggest injury so far this season when Elvis Dumervil, last season’s sack leader, was lost for the season early in camp. While they do still have a pretty good defense, you can only imagine what piece they could’ve added if they hadn’t reached for Tim Tebow in the first round. This move was all the more curious given that Kyle Orton has secured his position as the starting QB and they needed a receiving threat. This team should be a .500 team give or take one game but the AFC is going to be too strong for them to make the Wild Card.
Both the Chiefs (6-10) and the Raiders (6-10) showed signs of reaffirming their respective commitments to being respectable members of the National Football League. For the Raiders that meant letting JaMarcus Russell go and brought Jason Campbell in to take over the huddle. On defense they added University of Alabama standout linebacker Rolando McClain to a group that is already one of the best in the league. It’s not incomprehensible that this team catches fire and wins a few more games than anyone thought. The Chiefs showed their commitment to improving by drafting smartly (Eric Berry), improving the running game (Thomas Jones), and bringing in Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel. Luckily the good neighbors in Kansas City have the patience to wait to see if this team can improve over the next few seasons.
